Stocks , Dollar, oil price outlook Dr. Warren Huang
May 8th, 2008US Stocks plunge in correction to housing market slump, ECB hold interest rate cut, Dollar gain strength Oil prices , inflation worry continue
Comment by - May 7, 2008 at 7:37 pm
OSA Market Blog, Market ovehested, Oil peaking out 130 Dr. Warren Huang
May 6th, 2008Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May 6, 2008 and osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ blog1 at 6:25 pm
The market is repeating its last August speculative mood, chasing on banking, high tech stocks push Dow to 14200 new high, this time over 13000, trying to break downtrend., despite housing markets slump, soaring oil, commodities prices, job cuts and banking, finance mounting loss in write down.
The market optimism built on shaking ground, betting on housing, banking, high tech sectors rebound, will lead to another trillion dollar loss.
Goldman’s prediction of 200 dollar oil price is against market supply demand fundamental mechanism. Oil price bubble will burst before 200.consumers just can not afford
to pay for that price. We will have long, deep inflationary recession with us, even stimulus package rate cuts will not be able to achieve sustainable recovery this year. We have already seen the worst of dollar weakness at almost the end of current rate cuts cycle, the soaring oil price will push inflation higher, all will give support to US dollar.
Gasoline and heating oil are still the major demand driving force for oil price. It is the spring, summer gasoline demand drive the oil price from 80 to 120.
stronger dollar supported by inflation fighting will drag oil price lower, current oil price spike is expectation of stimulus package boost jet fuel and gasoline demand this summer.
We may see oil price breakout to 130, not much beyond that. details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html
www.osawh.coom/currency.html
The market optimism built on shaking ground, betting on housing, banking, high tech sectors rebound, will lead to another trillion dollar loss.
Goldman’s prediction of 200 dollar oil price is against market supply demand fundamental mechanism. Oil price bubble will burst before 200.consumers just can not afford
to pay for that price. We will have long, deep inflationary recession with us, even stimulus package rate cuts will not be able to achieve sustainable recovery this year. We have already seen the worst of dollar weakness at almost the end of current rate cuts cycle, the soaring oil price will push inflation higher, all will give support to US dollar.
Gasoline and heating oil are still the major demand driving force for oil price. It is the spring, summer gasoline demand drive the oil price from 80 to 120.
stronger dollar supported by inflation fighting will drag oil price lower, current oil price spike is expectation of stimulus package boost jet fuel and gasoline demand this summer.
We may see oil price breakout to 130, not much beyond that. details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html
www.osawh.coom/currency.html
Dollar outlook , impact on industrial sectors performance Dr. Warren Huang
May 5th, 2008US dollar outlook and its impact on industrial sectors performance,
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog May 5, 2008 at 2:10 pm
We have to look at the dollar fundamental price and its impact on industrial sectors mechanism to track its prices.
There are not easy statistical correlation.
Dollar bull due to 6 years economic expansion and rate hikes series, while dollar weakness due to economic slowdown, recession fear resulted rate cuts expectation.
Utility, consumer goods goods are heavily related to domestic consumer spending, strong dollar raise buying power while utility consumer going up with more manufacturing
plant demand for utility.
But continue housing market slump will drag consumer demand, ( economic stimulus will not be sufficient to support the demand slowdown) economics into recession, manufacturing activity ISM already down to 47 .Despite ISM service sectors up to 52, it will not be sustainable stay above 50 after second quarter stimulus effect is over.
Recent dollar strength come from better than expected 0.6 % GDP growth and soaring oil prices pushed inflation higher, forced Fed to end rate cycle earlier, facing inflation fighting. However housing slump continue depress the economy, Fed facing Trilemma on rate, GDP, inflation, dollar.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/currency.html www.osagloobalsstrategicmanagement.com/blog1
There are not easy statistical correlation.
Dollar bull due to 6 years economic expansion and rate hikes series, while dollar weakness due to economic slowdown, recession fear resulted rate cuts expectation.
Utility, consumer goods goods are heavily related to domestic consumer spending, strong dollar raise buying power while utility consumer going up with more manufacturing
plant demand for utility.
But continue housing market slump will drag consumer demand, ( economic stimulus will not be sufficient to support the demand slowdown) economics into recession, manufacturing activity ISM already down to 47 .Despite ISM service sectors up to 52, it will not be sustainable stay above 50 after second quarter stimulus effect is over.
Recent dollar strength come from better than expected 0.6 % GDP growth and soaring oil prices pushed inflation higher, forced Fed to end rate cycle earlier, facing inflation fighting. However housing slump continue depress the economy, Fed facing Trilemma on rate, GDP, inflation, dollar.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/currency.html www.osagloobalsstrategicmanagement.com/blog1
OSA Market Blog: Rate cuts rally party is over, back to recessions fundamental Dr. Warren Huang
May 1st, 2008The party celenrating rate cuts, bail for banking, financial and IT shares rebound rally is over.
From now on, market will face all the soaring oil, comodities, inflation, job cuts, sagging consumer confidence, housing price slump, credit default bad news.Markets will give up all its recent gain in the weeks ahead
details www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm
www.osawh.com/recession.html
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
From now on, market will face all the soaring oil, comodities, inflation, job cuts, sagging consumer confidence, housing price slump, credit default bad news.Markets will give up all its recent gain in the weeks ahead
details www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm
www.osawh.com/recession.html
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by - May 1, 2008 at 11:56 am
OSA Energy Commodity Bubble Burst Dr. Warren Huang
April 24th, 2008Rate cuts and stimulus package
help dollar heading to new low and driveing up record oil, commodity prices.
These bubble will follow housing bubble burst, in the next round of rate hikes, to boost the dollar, cut inflation later this year.
detail on
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com blog
and
www.osawh.com/commody.html
help dollar heading to new low and driveing up record oil, commodity prices.
These bubble will follow housing bubble burst, in the next round of rate hikes, to boost the dollar, cut inflation later this year.
detail on
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com blog
and
www.osawh.com/commody.html
Comment by on Wall Street Journal market beat blog- April 23, 2008 at 9:14 pm
OSA Energy Blog : Oil prices heading for 115- 125 as dollar weaken in summer
April 22nd, 2008I warned on this blog last Sept that aggressive rate cuts can not stop housing price slump , but only drag the dollar to new low ( 1.55-1.65 EURO, 90- 100 Yen, and soaaring oil, commodities price, and inflation, which raises the US import, expanding US trade deficit, the interest ratea spread and trade deficit will drag dollar even lower.
Dollar only can be supported by Fed rate hike to fight the inflation.
Fed choose to ignore inflation, while switch to rate cuts further help currecny speulators to dump dollar for higher interest rate currency EURO, Pound.
Dollar can rebound once Fed stop rate cuts.
Oil price has benn benefited by soariing US and global housing, auto, travel market demand for heating oil, fet fuel, gasoline in summer, and weak dollar, further help by rate cuts and stimulus package
to support the business and conumer demand.
Oil pricewill challenge 115- 125 , gasoline and heating to 355 this summer.
detaisl can be found
www.osawh.com/currency.html
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilToday.html
Dollar only can be supported by Fed rate hike to fight the inflation.
Fed choose to ignore inflation, while switch to rate cuts further help currecny speulators to dump dollar for higher interest rate currency EURO, Pound.
Dollar can rebound once Fed stop rate cuts.
Oil price has benn benefited by soariing US and global housing, auto, travel market demand for heating oil, fet fuel, gasoline in summer, and weak dollar, further help by rate cuts and stimulus package
to support the business and conumer demand.
Oil pricewill challenge 115- 125 , gasoline and heating to 355 this summer.
detaisl can be found
www.osawh.com/currency.html
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilToday.html
Comment by Wal Street Journal market beat blog- April 22, 2008 at 1:16 pm
OSA Market Blog Bear market rally is over for correction by Dr. Warren Huang
April 22nd, 2008Market bull speculator struggling using aggressicve rate cuts, stimulus package, Bear Stearn cash infusion lower expection on Citigroup and IBM, Google earning announcemenet making breakthrough of bear market rally to bull rally in the background of continued housing market slump, manufacturing slowdon, soaring inflation and job cuts
plunging consumer confidence recession fear.
Bull market can never survive in recession, especialy in current housing bubble burst, prolonged housing price slump
resulted recession.
We are reaching the limit of current bear market rebound.
marekt is facing good correction overvaluation in banking, finace, housing,IT, high fliers stock, ( above 100) consumer products.
These shares will give up its recent gain
plunging consumer confidence recession fear.
Bull market can never survive in recession, especialy in current housing bubble burst, prolonged housing price slump
resulted recession.
We are reaching the limit of current bear market rebound.
marekt is facing good correction overvaluation in banking, finace, housing,IT, high fliers stock, ( above 100) consumer products.
These shares will give up its recent gain
Comment by Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - April 22, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Housing price slump, drag economic into recession continue
April 16th, 2008I warned last Sept on this blog that housing price slump continue into summer 2008, drag banking, financial, housing, IT, retails stocks into bear market correction, lead to shrinking hosuing, equities wealth, cutting into consumer, business demand, job cuts drag economics into recession.
I also warned that rate cuts and economic stimulus package will not stop housing price slump, but drag dollar lower and led to soaring oil, commodities, food prices and
raw material cost, soaring inflation and profit squeez.
drag stocks, economic into deeper recession in the month ahead.
detailsm on
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm
www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm
www.osawh.com/recession.html
I also warned that rate cuts and economic stimulus package will not stop housing price slump, but drag dollar lower and led to soaring oil, commodities, food prices and
raw material cost, soaring inflation and profit squeez.
drag stocks, economic into deeper recession in the month ahead.
detailsm on
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm
www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm
www.osawh.com/recession.html
Comment by -on Wall Street Journal Real TIme Economics April 16, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Double Dip Recession Dr. Warren Huang
February 8th, 2008Based on my 30 years tracking, simulation of last 30 years global economic cycles, asset prices bubble burst,I warned on this blog last Sept that aggressive Fed rate cuts can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer resulted recesion, US, global stcck market bear market recession, and drag dollar lower, pushed oil, commodities prices and infaltion higher, with risks of 1980 style double dip recession during 2008-2009.
detaisl can be found on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
and www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
Comment by Wall Street Journal Real time Economic Blog- February 8, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Trillion dollar recession hedge Dr. Warren Huang
February 8th, 2008I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housinng, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 %
Any Hedge fund follow my advixe could make trillion dollar in 2007.
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.
6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
and
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housinng, shares down 50 %, IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR shares down 30 %
Any Hedge fund follow my advixe could make trillion dollar in 2007.
details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.
6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
and
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
Comment by - February 8, 2008 at 11:28 am
It is not because of oil price soared to record level ( It is used to it , even gain on oil shares performances.)
Bullish speculators speculate the worst of credit crisis is over, in led to over 30 -50 % gain in these share, will loss most of its gain in a bear trap, as housing price slump will continue, soaring oil, commodities price, foreclosure, job cut drag consumer confidence to deep recession level. Betting on the interest rate and banking, finance, housing market rebound will repeat last summer trillion dollar loss, facing double dip inflationary recession in Feds ending rate cuts cycle.10 year bond yield will repeat last summer break 4 %
It is premature to speculate ECB will cuts rate before summer at current oil, commodities prices and inflation level.
So dollar has limited speculation room as rising oil price, inflation. But Fed is not to switch to rate hike cycle before housing price slump ends.
details on www.osawh.coom/Fedcrisab.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/riskm.html