Daily Gold, Metal Prices Bubbles Burst , Proactive Structural Simulation /Forecast 2010 OSA by Dr. Warren Huang Pioneering :US/ China/Global Debt, Credit, Financial Crisis, exit strategy and Economic Stimulus impact on Daily Global Gold and Metals Futures Prices Mechanism and Gold Fund Performance
Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to , weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession recovery, even weak dollar can not save it
Gold price peaking out in summer 2010 around 1250- 1300 and return to 1200 and below due to 4 year high of dollar against Euro due to debt crisis, China Asian credit tightening against housing pricing bubble, economic slowdown to 7.5 % GDP, US exit strategy, out of tax rebate, housing consumer credit and inflationary control economy to slowdown to below 2.5 % in second half
Beware of Oil, Gold , commodity price bubble burst due to China housing price bubble and inflation control , US and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting inflation lead to weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession recovery, while complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted global sovereign debt bubble burst crisis from Dubai, PIGS (Greece, Spain, UK, Portugeece , Italy)) resulted commodity prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit strategy.
Debt crisis in EURO area, strong US 4Q GDP of 5.7 % and 1Q 3.00 %, will driving dollar to new high to 1.20- 1.32 EURO, 1.45-1.52 pound drag gold from 1250 peak to 1060, oil from 86 to 68, are excessive given US 1.8 trillion budget deficit, and soaring consumer, business debt will drag dollar lower and oil, gold price rebound summer 2010
2010 oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control, in 2010 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 17 % in 2010 and US exit strategy fighting inflation in second half 2010 will cut oil demand and lead to oil price peaking out in 2010
Oil price will be rebound from 69 to 75 in 1Q 2010, and to 66- 88 in 2 Q , and 3 Q and 74- 88 in 4 Q
Gasoline price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 200- 250 in 2, 3 Q, 200- 220 in 4Q
heating oil price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 185- 220- in 2, 3 Q, 210- 250 in 4Q
Natural price will be rebound from4.5-6.0 in 1 Q, 4.0- 5.0 in 2, 3 Q, 5.0- 6.5 in 4Q
Gold price will be rebound from 1000- 1150 in 1 Q, 1150- 1250 in 2, 3 Q, 1200- 1350 in 4Q
US dollar firm due to continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK US dollar in 1 Q, 1.25-1.32- -EURO , 1.18-1.32- EURO in 2 Q, 1.20- 1.30 ,in 3 Q, 1.25- 1.35 in 4 Q
and 1.45- 1.50 pound in 1 Q, 2 Q and 1.41- 1.52- 1.58 in 3, 4 Q
US dollar peaking out in 1 Q, 88- 93 Yen , 78- 90 in 2Q, 3Q, 85- 92 in 4 Q,
Dr. Warren Huang Comment to Wall Street Journal Market beat May15, 2
Comment by Dr. Warren Huang on Yahoo finance.com, Wall Street Journal Market Blog May 10, 2010
I predicted on Sept 2007 Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics, Market Beat blog and this blog that the burst of US and global super housing prices bubble will repeat 1980 style last through 2010 with double dip recession and stock market rebound and correction due to excessive stimulus , zero interest and trillions liquidity into the financial and economic system.We are in the second stage of recession recovery , the global debt bubble burst crisis with public debt over 6- 12 % of GDP, starting with Greece, US, Spain, Portuguese were causedby easy credits, excessive liquidity resulted debt and asset ( equities, commodities, housing )bubbles burst.Global stock markets rally over Euro trillion bail out fades in one day due to US and global stocks investors and economist are overoptimistic about US 1 Q GDP growth at 3.2 %, April PMI at 60, and rebound in housing and retail sales 2010 all due to housing stimulus credit soon to expire in April, and tax rebate resulted consumer spending rebound at 6 % will peaking out after May, Greece, euro area debt crisis drag GDP growth to 1 % , dollar appreciation from 1.5 to 1.26 euro will further slowdown US export growth in the second half , China credit tightening slow GDP to 8 % by yearend , India, Austria, Korea interest rate hikes will slow down GDP growth , leading to US export decline related while any further exit strategy, credit tightening, inflationary control, rate hikes will lead to economic growth double dip to below 2.5 % by yearend . US stocks are extremely overpriced , subject to 20- 30 % correctionDow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P stock index forecastsDow Junes will be return to consolidate in 9000- 9900 soon , NASDAQ test 2000- 2200, S&P test 1000- 1100 , China Shanghai A index 2250- 2500, Shenzhen A index 9000- 10000, Hang Seng Index 16000- 28000, Singapore st. index 2600- 2800, Taiwan Index 6600- 7200, London Financial Times 4800- 5000, Dax index 5000- 5500 and may test in second financial , recession crisis double dip triggered by Greek and PIGS countries debt crisis, China/Asian slowdownDetails on www.osawh.com/centmaf.htmwww.osawh.com/dowwp.htmwww.osawh.com/debtbub.htm
US , EURO, UK and Japan just entering phase II housing, credit, financial, crisis, recessibn, continuation of phase I, casused by housing bubble burst resulted subprime, mortgage crisis spreading into credit, financial crisis and onset of recession, with housing prices plunged 15 %, resulted equties price bubble burst, stock indices plunged 50 %,( Dow Jones plunged from 14300 to 7300, GDP plunged below -3 %, SP500 from 1500 to 750) Dax from 8500 to 4200, FT from 8000 to 4000),drag oil, commodities , metal bubble burst 50- 70 %
The phase II banking financial crisis is caused by prolonged housing market slump drag economy into deep recession,housing prices plunged 25 % and GDP plunge 5 % this year, Japan GDP plunged 12 %, Nikkei index plunged from 19000 to 7300, Dow Jones will plunge to 6000 this year further drag banking and nonbanking into all out deep liquidity, d credit,default , financial crisis and deeper recession, delay the credit market recovery for
highly risky, high yield junk bond leveraged finance and acquisition housing ( will be following housing market slump and recession)
comment to Asian leverage finance, acquisition conference, Feb. 17, 2009, Hong Kong, Greensburg of Goldman Sach on credit market recovery learning process
From my proactive structural simulation of monetary, fiscal, economic policy impact on last 30 years global macroeconomic cycles, interest rate, currency, commodities, stock indicex, housing and derivative asset prices bubbles burst, mortgage, credit, financial crisis.
Housing slump, mortgage, financial crisis will continue drag US into deep recession through early 2009drag major stock indices into recession lows
Dow Jones testing 6000-7000- NASDAQ testing 1150- 1250 S&P 500 testing 600-700 details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htmwww.osawh.com/fund2008.htmwww.osawh.com/SP500.htmwww.osawh.com/riskm.html
Dr. Huang warned since Sept 2007 again that global central banks, economist,market analysts and banking, finance company have misled the investors again that rate cuts, economic stimulus, rescue package will stop housing and stock market price slump resulted mortage , credit, financial crisis and recession.
Again they drag into 1980, 1990 style double inflationary recession and super housing bubble burst due to slump
in consumer and busiess spending,soaring jobless rate due resulted by
trillions housing and stock market wealth loss will continue into 2009 despite 7000 billion rescue package and trillion dollar mortgage bail out of bad assets, MBS.
Dow Jones will plunge below 7000 soon
while S&P will test 600- 700 NASDAQ test 1100- 1250- 1750 early 2009
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog Dec. 31 2008 at 2:43 am
Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008
I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary recession will drag banking share further.
SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking sare performance
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htmwww.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htmwww.osawh.com/recession.htmlwww.osawh.com/fund2008.htm