Innovation in China finance, capital market reform: Proactive market forces mechanism for Financial risks, NPL  early warning : China RMB severs tie with US dollar, switch to managed, controllable, gradual, rational float against unspecified basket of currencies, appreciate 3 % ,will be traded 7.7- 7.78 to the dollar, Dr. Huang predicted  Feb , Nov  2005  to  100 QFII banking, finance managers   in Beijin China oil invesmtment conferences that oil price will soared to 60-69, 2005 ,    78 in summer 2006, will force China/US credit tightenin, continue into summer 2007.   and deposit ratio to 10.5 %, credit tightening housing   the  housing bubble wealth pushed  Shanghai, Shenzhen A, G shares new bull high test 3500, facing correction to 2500-3000, stock index trippled, the equities markets further complicate China overheated economy, almost out of central banks monetary policy, interest rate control.
Dr. Huang predicted to, Feb , 2005 that oil price will soared to 60-69, summer 2005 and again Nov. 2005 100 global oil,  QFII banking, finance managers Beijing  in Beijin China oil invesmtment conferences that oil prices will soar to 69 in January, 74 in summer 2006  and on nationwide SINA, China security websites that China Shanghai, Shenzhen A, G shares after plunging 30-50 % in selling holding of state sharess will leading rally rebound 30 % to 50 %  took Shanghai to 1650 early 2006  facing bear market correction after China hosuing credit tightening  rasie bank reserve ration to 8 %  June 2006
China made smart move to witch to float against unspecified basket of currenies, up 2 % , will stay  7.9-9.02  .
He predicted on Asian China finance, capital market conferences Nov. 2003 in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, to 2000 QFII fund managers that soaring China housing, auto demand resulted soaring oil, commodity prices, infaltion to 5.2 % in May 2004, forced China Peoples Bank credit tightening, rate hikes, and RMB will stay unchanged through 2005, despite political pressure and market speculation. d
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pioneer OSA structural simulation forecast of China A, B, ADR share
Name:
Dr. Warren Huang
Email: wh3928@yahoo.com