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Innovation in China macro inflation, housing bubble control, capital market reform: Proactive market prices mechanism for risks, NPL early warning : China People's Bank credit tightening continue through year end with RMB follow a basket of currency, under graduate, independent appreciate within 4 % a year, supported by trade surplus, steady GDP grwoth of 9 %, and uner current US, EURO debt crisis, double dip recession fear will be traded 6.25- 6.40 severs China stock market are suffered by Peoples bank continued macro, inflation and housing bubble control, despite raise interest rate 4 times, bank deposit rate to 21.5 %, Sept 2011 CPI still at 6.1 % well above 5 % target, housing price bubble near peak, facing burst 30- 50 % correction soon,. |
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AS credit tightening by yearend 2011, drag by housing , real estate and banking shares perofrmance ( NPL risks worry) due to government implemented tight loan restriction , propetty tax, buy restriction, will face 30- 50 % correction Stock market continue into bear market corretion with small cap and ventual cap stock give up 50 % of their hefty gain in most share making 50- 70 % correction earlier speculation through year end, as central bank reduce M2 to 13 % and facing EURO debt crisis, and double dip recession fear US QE3, OBAMA stimulus package will further push up commodity price and inflation, delay China Peoples Bank policy easing and stock market recovery. China A and B share, H share all facing bear market correction, continue test new lows through yearend, with Shanghai A Composite traded 2200- 2400, Shenzhen 9000- 10,000 B and H share continue make new low with technical rebound by yearend> |
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My Favorite Links: |
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CChina monetary, economic, fiscal policy, macroeconomic control, inflation, interest rate, bond yield market forces mechanism |
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Proactive RMB, global currency market forces mechanism forecast |
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Proactive China banking, finance NPL and strategic Basel II market, credit, operational risks early warning |
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Proactive Monetary, economic, fiscal policy, macro inflation, housing bubble control impact on China stock indices, Housing market banking, finance insurance , integration, M/A, IPO
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pioneer OSA structural simulation forecast of China A, B, ADR share |
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Name: |
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Dr. Warren Huang |
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Email: |
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wh3928@yahoo.com |
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