RMB stay within 3 % ,Excessive housing and fixed investment led to 2006 summer rate hikes
He predicted on Asian China finance, capital market conferences Nov. 2003 in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, to 2000 QFII fund managers that soaring China housing, auto demand resulted soaring oil, commodity prices, inflation to 5.2 % in May 2004, forced China Peoples Bank credit tightening, rate hikes, and RMB will stay unchanged through 2005
He predicted again, Feb 2005 to his risk management workshop to 70 global oil, fund managers that China excessive housing demand will drive oil price to 60 in spring,and higher inflation calling for rate hike this summer, despite Peoples Bank already raised housing loan rate by 0.27 % and first down
payment to 30 % drag China bond in 2005
prices and Shanghai A to 1050-1365 Shenzhen A 2750-3250 }
China 2006 first quarter GDP up 10.2 %, far from soft land goal of 8 %, fixed investment up 29 % ,, auto growth up 79%, Feb. M2 growth up 18 % is excessive,despite CPI up 3.9 %, already drive oil prices to 75, and CPI to 3.9 , led to Peoples Bank raised rate 0.27 % , repeaing 2005 auto, metal, coke industry control in summer 2006
